StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 1:3series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Vitality#2 in the world · win 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageVitality ban
62%50%
Aurora · 9 mapsedge Aurora +12%Vitality · 6 maps
Dust2Vitality pick
50%71%
Aurora · 4 mapsedge Vitality +21%Vitality · 10 maps
AnubisAurora pick
64%40%
Aurora · 7 mapsedge Aurora +24%Vitality · 6 maps
NukeAurora pick
80%55%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge Aurora +25%Vitality · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
56%63%
Aurora · 5 mapsedge Vitality +7%Vitality · 4 maps
InfernoVitality pick
50%57%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge Vitality +7%Vitality · 3 maps
AncientAurora ban
40%50%
Aurora · 1 mapedge Vitality +10%Vitality · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanVitality remove Mirage
3. PickAurora take Anubis
4. PickVitality take Dust2
5. PickAurora take Nuke
6. PickVitality take Inferno
DeciderCache (56% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed4:13
Aurora 75%Vitality 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora — the map was taken by Vitality.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Aurora 40%Vitality 60%
The model gave 60% on Vitality — the map was taken by Aurora.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
Aurora 64%Vitality 36%
The model gave 64% on Aurora — the map was taken by Vitality.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
Aurora 40%Vitality 60%
The model gave 60% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 53%
Series resultVitality 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 4