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European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azuolas#191 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Azuolas ban
33%77%
Azuolas · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +44%Bushido Wildcats · 39 maps
MirageBushido Wildcats pick
42%55%
Azuolas · 8 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +13%Bushido Wildcats · 29 maps
NukeAzuolas pick
70%50%
Azuolas · 6 mapsedge Azuolas +20%Bushido Wildcats · 26 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%56%
Azuolas · 1 mapnearly even +4%Bushido Wildcats · 14 maps
AnubisAzuolas ban
60%50%
Azuolas · 1 mapedge Azuolas +10%Bushido Wildcats · 12 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
29%38%
Azuolas · 3 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +9%Bushido Wildcats · 9 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
50%40%
Azuolas · 4 mapsedge Azuolas +10%Bushido Wildcats · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAzuolas remove Dust2
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
3. PickAzuolas take Nuke
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Mirage
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
6. BanAzuolas remove Anubis
DeciderCache (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Azuolas 35%Bushido Wildcats 65%
The model gave 65% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Azuolas 72%Bushido Wildcats 28%
The model gave 72% on Azuolas — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzuolas · 59%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2