NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2 Ares#97 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageG2 Ares pick
38%46%
Azuolas · 4 mapsedge G2 Ares +8%G2 Ares · 20 maps
Dust2Azuolas ban
40%44%
Azuolas · 1 mapnearly even -4%G2 Ares · 21 map
Infernopossible decider
50%46%
Azuolas · 0 mapsnearly even +4%G2 Ares · 20 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
57%53%
Azuolas · 3 mapsnearly even +4%G2 Ares · 11 maps
AnubisAzuolas ban
60%40%
Azuolas · 1 mapedge Azuolas +20%G2 Ares · 6 maps
CacheG2 Ares ban
50%40%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Azuolas +10%G2 Ares · 6 maps
OverpassAzuolas pick
50%25%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Azuolas +25%G2 Ares · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAzuolas remove Anubis
2. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
3. PickAzuolas take Overpass
4. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
5. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
6. BanAzuolas remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Azuolas 44%G2 Ares 56%
The model gave 56% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Azuolas 51%G2 Ares 49%
The model gave 51% on Azuolas — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 71%
Series resultG2 Ares 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2