CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Azuolas#191 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
megoshort#179 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
38%44%
Azuolas · 12 mapsedge megoshort +6%megoshort · 14 maps
Ancientmegoshort pick
44%56%
Azuolas · 5 mapsedge megoshort +12%megoshort · 12 maps
Dust2Azuolas ban
29%50%
Azuolas · 3 mapsedge megoshort +21%megoshort · 10 maps
Infernomegoshort ban
29%33%
Azuolas · 3 mapsnearly even -4%megoshort · 8 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
47%50%
Azuolas · 11 mapsnearly even -3%megoshort · 0 maps
CacheAzuolas ban
60%55%
Azuolas · 1 mapedge Azuolas +5%megoshort · 7 maps
DefaultAzuolas pick
50%55%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge megoshort +5%megoshort · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAzuolas remove Dust2
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickAzuolas take Default
4. Pickmegoshort take Ancient
5. Banmegoshort remove Inferno
6. BanAzuolas remove Cache
DeciderMirage (38% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Azuolas 46%megoshort 54%
The model gave 54% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Azuolas 42%megoshort 58%
The model gave 58% on megoshort — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Ancientprediction correct16:19
Azuolas 38%megoshort 62%
The model gave 62% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzuolas · 50%
Series resultmegoshort 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3