ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Academy#229 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DONSTU#221 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
40%42%
B8 Academy · 1 mapnearly even -2%DONSTU · 8 maps
Dust2B8 Academy ban
40%45%
B8 Academy · 1 mapedge DONSTU +5%DONSTU · 7 maps
InfernoB8 Academy pick
60%44%
B8 Academy · 1 mapedge B8 Academy +16%DONSTU · 5 maps
AncientDONSTU ban
60%50%
B8 Academy · 1 mapedge B8 Academy +10%DONSTU · 4 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
60%50%
B8 Academy · 1 mapedge B8 Academy +10%DONSTU · 0 maps
OverpassB8 Academy ban
50%60%
B8 Academy · 0 mapsedge DONSTU +10%DONSTU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 Academy remove Overpass
2. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
3. PickB8 Academy take Inferno
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Ancient
6. BanB8 Academy remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
B8 Academy 63%DONSTU 37%
The model gave 63% on B8 Academy — the map was taken by B8 Academy.
Anubisprediction correct6:13
B8 Academy 45%DONSTU 55%
The model gave 55% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Dust2prediction correct12:16
B8 Academy 44%DONSTU 56%
The model gave 56% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 51%
Series resultDONSTU 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3