ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Academy#229 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ReThink#237 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientB8 Academy ban
50%60%
B8 Academy · 0 mapsedge ReThink +10%ReThink · 1 map
Dust2ReThink pick
50%60%
B8 Academy · 0 mapsedge ReThink +10%ReThink · 1 map
InfernoB8 Academy pick
60%50%
B8 Academy · 1 mapedge B8 Academy +10%ReThink · 0 maps
NukeReThink ban
60%50%
B8 Academy · 1 mapedge B8 Academy +10%ReThink · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 Academy remove Ancient
2. BanReThink remove Nuke
3. PickB8 Academy take Inferno
4. PickReThink take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
B8 Academy 37%ReThink 63%
The model gave 63% on ReThink — the map was taken by B8 Academy.
Anubisprediction missed20:22
B8 Academy 53%ReThink 47%
The model gave 53% on B8 Academy — the map was taken by ReThink.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
B8 Academy 40%ReThink 60%
The model gave 60% on ReThink — the map was taken by ReThink.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Academy · 50%
Series resultReThink 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3