Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
59%74%
B8 · 13 mapsedge fnatic +15%fnatic · 15 maps
MirageB8 pick
44%31%
B8 · 12 mapsedge B8 +13%fnatic · 9 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
67%54%
B8 · 11 mapsedge B8 +13%fnatic · 9 maps
Cachefnatic pick
63%74%
B8 · 4 mapsedge fnatic +11%fnatic · 15 maps
InfernoB8 ban
45%54%
B8 · 7 mapsedge fnatic +9%fnatic · 9 maps
AnubisB8 ban
50%79%
B8 · 0 mapsedge fnatic +29%fnatic · 10 maps
Nukefnatic ban
67%50%
B8 · 2 mapsedge B8 +17%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickB8 take Mirage
4. Pickfnatic take Cache
5. Banfnatic remove Dust2
6. BanB8 remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (59% / 74%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
B8 35%fnatic 65%
The model gave 65% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
B8 66%fnatic 34%
The model gave 66% on B8 — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 75%
Series resultfnatic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2