IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HOTU#27 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
67%68%
B8 · 8 mapsnearly even -1%HOTU · 18 maps
AncientB8 pick
53%62%
B8 · 13 mapsedge HOTU +9%HOTU · 9 maps
CacheHOTU pick
60%65%
B8 · 1 mapedge HOTU +5%HOTU · 16 maps
MirageHOTU ban
14%55%
B8 · 10 mapsedge HOTU +41%HOTU · 7 maps
NukeB8 ban
71%69%
B8 · 3 mapsnearly even +2%HOTU · 9 maps
AnubisB8 ban
50%71%
B8 · 0 mapsedge HOTU +21%HOTU · 10 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
60%50%
B8 · 6 mapsedge B8 +10%HOTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Anubis
2. BanHOTU remove Inferno
3. PickB8 take Ancient
4. PickHOTU take Cache
5. BanHOTU remove Mirage
6. BanB8 remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (67% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
B8 42%HOTU 58%
The model gave 58% on HOTU — the map was taken by B8.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
B8 14%HOTU 86%
The model gave 86% on HOTU — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 63%
Series resultB8 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2