Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Luminosity#30 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientB8 ban
61%60%
B8 · 14 mapsnearly even +1%Luminosity · 6 maps
Dust2B8 pick
67%36%
B8 · 11 mapsedge B8 +31%Luminosity · 7 maps
MirageLuminosity pick
47%63%
B8 · 11 mapsedge Luminosity +16%Luminosity · 4 maps
InfernoB8 ban
50%45%
B8 · 6 mapsedge B8 +5%Luminosity · 7 maps
NukeLuminosity ban
67%55%
B8 · 2 mapsedge B8 +12%Luminosity · 7 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
63%33%
B8 · 4 mapsedge B8 +30%Luminosity · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Inferno
2. BanLuminosity remove Cache
3. PickB8 take Dust2
4. PickLuminosity take Mirage
5. BanLuminosity remove Nuke
6. BanB8 remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
B8 52%Luminosity 48%
The model gave 52% on B8 — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
B8 37%Luminosity 63%
The model gave 63% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 66%
Series resultLuminosity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2