IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · win 13:11series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 13:11
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisB8 ban
50%75%
B8 · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +25%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
33%50%
B8 · 2 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +17%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 6 maps
NukeB8 ban
33%56%
B8 · 2 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +23%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
AncientTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
63%50%
B8 · 4 mapsedge B8 +13%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 maps
InfernoB8 ban
50%67%
B8 · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +17%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
67%50%
B8 · 5 mapsedge B8 +17%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
OverpassTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
57%40%
B8 · 3 mapsedge B8 +17%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Anubis
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
3. BanB8 remove Nuke
4. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Ancient
5. BanB8 remove Inferno
6. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
B8 33%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 67%
The model gave 67% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 79%
Series resultB8 13:11
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1