IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · win 13:6series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 13:6
TYLOO#33 in the world · loss 6:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTYLOO ban
63%31%
B8 · 4 mapsedge B8 +32%TYLOO · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%75%
B8 · 4 mapsedge TYLOO +12%TYLOO · 8 maps
OverpassTYLOO ban
57%60%
B8 · 3 mapsnearly even -3%TYLOO · 6 maps
InfernoB8 ban
50%67%
B8 · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +17%TYLOO · 8 maps
NukeB8 ban
33%67%
B8 · 2 mapsedge TYLOO +34%TYLOO · 5 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
33%50%
B8 · 2 mapsedge TYLOO +17%TYLOO · 0 maps
AnubisB8 ban
50%60%
B8 · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +10%TYLOO · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Nuke
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. BanB8 remove Anubis
4. BanTYLOO remove Ancient
5. BanB8 remove Inferno
6. BanTYLOO remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (63% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
B8 36%TYLOO 64%
The model gave 64% on TYLOO — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 63%
Series resultB8 13:6
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1