WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAKS#112 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
64%53%
BAKS · 7 mapsedge BAKS +11%CYBERSHOKE · 15 maps
AncientCYBERSHOKE ban
67%47%
BAKS · 5 mapsedge BAKS +20%CYBERSHOKE · 15 maps
NukeBAKS ban
45%55%
BAKS · 7 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +10%CYBERSHOKE · 7 maps
CacheBAKS pick
71%57%
BAKS · 10 mapsedge BAKS +14%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
MirageCYBERSHOKE pick
38%67%
BAKS · 4 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +29%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%38%
BAKS · 0 mapsedge BAKS +12%CYBERSHOKE · 4 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
50%50%
BAKS · 4 mapsnearly even +0%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBAKS remove Anubis
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickBAKS take Cache
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Mirage
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Ancient
6. BanBAKS remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (64% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
BAKS 68%CYBERSHOKE 32%
The model gave 68% on BAKS — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
BAKS 58%CYBERSHOKE 42%
The model gave 58% on BAKS — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 51%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2