NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAKS#112 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
54%39%
BAKS · 9 mapsedge BAKS +15%G2 Ares · 19 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
44%56%
BAKS · 5 mapsedge G2 Ares +12%G2 Ares · 23 maps
MirageBAKS ban
44%46%
BAKS · 5 mapsnearly even -2%G2 Ares · 22 maps
CacheBAKS pick
69%33%
BAKS · 12 mapsedge BAKS +36%G2 Ares · 8 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
70%53%
BAKS · 6 mapsedge BAKS +17%G2 Ares · 13 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
45%50%
BAKS · 7 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%G2 Ares · 0 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%50%
BAKS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%G2 Ares · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBAKS remove Anubis
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickBAKS take Cache
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
6. BanBAKS remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (54% / 39%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
BAKS 36%G2 Ares 64%
The model gave 64% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
BAKS 83%G2 Ares 17%
The model gave 83% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Ancientprediction correct22:20
BAKS 67%G2 Ares 33%
The model gave 67% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 55%
Series resultBAKS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3