ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAKS#99 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misa#124 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
50%47%
BAKS · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Misa · 26 maps
MirageMisa ban
43%38%
BAKS · 3 mapsedge BAKS +5%Misa · 17 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%52%
BAKS · 0 mapsnearly even -2%Misa · 19 maps
CacheBAKS pick
67%38%
BAKS · 5 mapsedge BAKS +29%Misa · 12 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
BAKS · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 10 maps
NukeMisa ban
50%50%
BAKS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 12 maps
DefaultBAKS ban
50%42%
BAKS · 0 mapsedge BAKS +8%Misa · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBAKS remove Anubis
2. BanMisa remove Nuke
3. PickBAKS take Cache
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanBAKS remove Default
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
BAKS 50%Misa 50%
The model gave 50% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
BAKS 53%Misa 47%
The model gave 53% on BAKS — the map was taken by Misa.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
BAKS 77%Misa 23%
The model gave 77% on BAKS — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 63%
Series resultMisa 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3