ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAKS#99 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Misa#124 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
60%47%
BAKS · 6 mapsedge BAKS +13%Misa · 28 maps
MirageMisa ban
43%39%
BAKS · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Misa · 19 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%50%
BAKS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 20 maps
CacheBAKS pick
60%41%
BAKS · 6 mapsedge BAKS +19%Misa · 13 maps
NukeMisa ban
50%50%
BAKS · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 12 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
BAKS · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 10 maps
DefaultBAKS ban
50%42%
BAKS · 0 mapsedge BAKS +8%Misa · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBAKS remove Anubis
2. BanMisa remove Nuke
3. PickBAKS take Cache
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanBAKS remove Default
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
BAKS 66%Misa 34%
The model gave 66% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Nukeprediction correct12:16
BAKS 47%Misa 53%
The model gave 53% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
BAKS 68%Misa 32%
The model gave 68% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 52%
Series resultBAKS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3