CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked ban
30%36%
Banda Chuya · 6 mapsedge Lavked +6%Lavked · 21 map
Dust2Lavked pick
57%56%
Banda Chuya · 3 mapsnearly even +1%Lavked · 23 maps
AncientBanda Chuya pick
43%38%
Banda Chuya · 3 mapsedge Banda Chuya +5%Lavked · 17 maps
Nukepossible decider
38%50%
Banda Chuya · 4 mapsedge Lavked +12%Lavked · 16 maps
AnubisBanda Chuya ban
29%50%
Banda Chuya · 3 mapsedge Lavked +21%Lavked · 10 maps
DefaultLavked ban
67%33%
Banda Chuya · 2 mapsedge Banda Chuya +34%Lavked · 5 maps
InfernoBanda Chuya ban
50%36%
Banda Chuya · 0 mapsedge Banda Chuya +14%Lavked · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBanda Chuya remove Inferno
2. BanLavked remove Default
3. PickBanda Chuya take Ancient
4. PickLavked take Dust2
5. BanLavked remove Mirage
6. BanBanda Chuya remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed19:16
Banda Chuya 49%Lavked 51%
The model gave 51% on Lavked — the map was taken by Banda Chuya.
Nukeprediction missed22:18
Banda Chuya 40%Lavked 60%
The model gave 60% on Lavked — the map was taken by Banda Chuya.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 59%
Series resultBanda Chuya 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2