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FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
BARCA#95 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bounty Hunters#77 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBARCA pick
60%55%
BARCA · 1 mapedge BARCA +5%Bounty Hunters · 18 maps
Ancientpossible decider
33%42%
BARCA · 2 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +9%Bounty Hunters · 15 maps
MirageBounty Hunters pick
40%55%
BARCA · 1 mapedge Bounty Hunters +15%Bounty Hunters · 16 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
38%53%
BARCA · 4 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +15%Bounty Hunters · 11 maps
NukeBARCA ban
50%47%
BARCA · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Bounty Hunters · 13 maps
AnubisBARCA ban
50%60%
BARCA · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
71%50%
BARCA · 3 mapsedge BARCA +21%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBARCA remove Anubis
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickBARCA take Cache
4. PickBounty Hunters take Mirage
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
6. BanBARCA remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (33% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
BARCA 53%Bounty Hunters 47%
The model gave 53% on BARCA — the map was taken by BARCA.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
BARCA 38%Bounty Hunters 62%
The model gave 62% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
BARCA 41%Bounty Hunters 59%
The model gave 59% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by BARCA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 64%
Series resultBARCA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3