Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#93 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eternal Fire#43 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
46%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 20 mapsedge Eternal Fire +21%Eternal Fire · 17 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS pick
68%47%
BASEMENT BOYS · 18 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +21%Eternal Fire · 15 maps
CacheBASEMENT BOYS ban
47%59%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge Eternal Fire +12%Eternal Fire · 18 maps
Dust2possible decider
59%64%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge Eternal Fire +5%Eternal Fire · 18 maps
AnubisEternal Fire ban
56%56%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 12 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
56%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 14 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%53%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +13%Eternal Fire · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Mirage
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Anubis
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (59% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
BASEMENT BOYS 73%Eternal Fire 27%
The model gave 73% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
BASEMENT BOYS 35%Eternal Fire 65%
The model gave 65% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
BASEMENT BOYS 30%Eternal Fire 70%
The model gave 70% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 61%
Series resultEternal Fire 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3