LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 1:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeGBC ban
63%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 15 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +23%GBC · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
53%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%GBC · 1 map
MirageGBC ban
65%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +25%GBC · 1 map
AncientBASEMENT BOYS ban
47%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsnearly even -3%GBC · 0 maps
CacheGBC ban
60%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +20%GBC · 1 map
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
57%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%GBC · 0 maps
DefaultBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge GBC +10%GBC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
2. BanGBC remove Cache
3. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Default
4. BanGBC remove Mirage
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Ancient
6. BanGBC remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (53% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
BASEMENT BOYS 40%GBC 60%
The model gave 60% on GBC — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 71%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1