ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Leo#89 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo pick
60%64%
BASEMENT BOYS · 11 mapsnearly even -4%Leo · 21 map
Ancientpossible decider
67%56%
BASEMENT BOYS · 11 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +11%Leo · 12 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
63%54%
BASEMENT BOYS · 12 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +9%Leo · 9 maps
AnubisLeo ban
56%35%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +21%Leo · 13 maps
MirageLeo ban
54%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Leo · 4 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge Leo +20%Leo · 1 map
CacheBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Leo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanLeo remove Mirage
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. PickLeo take Dust2
5. BanLeo remove Anubis
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Cache
DeciderAncient (67% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
BASEMENT BOYS 67%Leo 33%
The model gave 67% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
BASEMENT BOYS 57%Leo 43%
The model gave 57% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 54%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2