Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MASONIC#187 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMASONIC pick
63%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%MASONIC · 4 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
63%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%MASONIC · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%MASONIC · 2 maps
InfernoMASONIC ban
33%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge MASONIC +17%MASONIC · 2 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge MASONIC +10%MASONIC · 1 map
MirageMASONIC ban
57%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%MASONIC · 0 maps
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapnearly even +0%MASONIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
2. BanMASONIC remove Mirage
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
4. PickMASONIC take Ancient
5. BanMASONIC remove Inferno
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
BASEMENT BOYS 65%MASONIC 35%
The model gave 65% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
BASEMENT BOYS 31%MASONIC 69%
The model gave 69% on MASONIC — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 72%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2