Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MTX#359 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMTX ban
63%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%MTX · 2 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
57%43%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +14%MTX · 3 maps
NukeMTX pick
57%43%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +14%MTX · 3 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
57%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +17%MTX · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
50%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%MTX · 1 map
InfernoMTX ban
33%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge MTX +7%MTX · 1 map
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge MTX +10%MTX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
2. BanMTX remove Ancient
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
4. PickMTX take Nuke
5. BanMTX remove Inferno
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
BASEMENT BOYS 61%MTX 39%
The model gave 61% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
BASEMENT BOYS 67%MTX 33%
The model gave 67% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 76%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2