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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePhantom Academy pick
54%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 9 mapsedge Phantom Academy +13%Phantom Academy · 5 maps
AncientPhantom Academy ban
57%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 10 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
67%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 11 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%Phantom Academy · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
54%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom Academy · 1 map
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
56%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Phantom Academy · 1 map
CachePhantom Academy ban
57%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%Phantom Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Cache
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Ancient
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
BASEMENT BOYS 34%Phantom Academy 66%
The model gave 66% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
BASEMENT BOYS 60%Phantom Academy 40%
The model gave 60% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Cacheprediction correct13:3
BASEMENT BOYS 57%Phantom Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 60%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3