HyperX Retake Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#60 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Toobisie#174 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBASEMENT BOYS pick
68%71%
BASEMENT BOYS · 21 mapnearly even -3%Toobisie · 3 maps
AncientToobisie ban
46%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 22 mapsnearly even -4%Toobisie · 0 maps
CacheBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 16 mapsedge Toobisie +10%Toobisie · 4 maps
NukeToobisie pick
53%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 15 mapsedge Toobisie +14%Toobisie · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
59%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge Toobisie +8%Toobisie · 2 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
60%33%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +27%Toobisie · 2 maps
DefaultToobisie ban
50%43%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%Toobisie · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
2. BanToobisie remove Ancient
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Mirage
4. PickToobisie take Nuke
5. BanToobisie remove Default
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (59% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
BASEMENT BOYS 49%Toobisie 51%
The model gave 51% on Toobisie — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
BASEMENT BOYS 33%Toobisie 67%
The model gave 67% on Toobisie — the map was taken by Toobisie.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
BASEMENT BOYS 75%Toobisie 25%
The model gave 75% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 65%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3