HyperX Retake Season 13 · BO1
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#60 in the world · loss 2:13series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:13
Toobisie#174 in the world · win 13:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageToobisie ban
68%71%
BASEMENT BOYS · 21 mapnearly even -3%Toobisie · 3 maps
AncientToobisie ban
46%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 22 mapsnearly even -4%Toobisie · 0 maps
CacheBASEMENT BOYS ban
42%43%
BASEMENT BOYS · 15 mapsnearly even -1%Toobisie · 3 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS ban
53%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 15 mapsedge Toobisie +14%Toobisie · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
59%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge Toobisie +8%Toobisie · 2 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
60%33%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +27%Toobisie · 2 maps
DefaultToobisie ban
50%43%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%Toobisie · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
2. BanToobisie remove Ancient
3. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Cache
4. BanToobisie remove Default
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Nuke
6. BanToobisie remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (59% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct2:13
BASEMENT BOYS 49%Toobisie 51%
The model gave 51% on Toobisie — the map was taken by Toobisie.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 73%
Series resultToobisie 2:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1