Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BBL#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Luminosity#28 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBBL pick
50%45%
BBL · 18 mapsedge BBL +5%Luminosity · 7 maps
MirageLuminosity pick
41%80%
BBL · 13 mapsedge Luminosity +39%Luminosity · 6 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
38%33%
BBL · 12 mapsedge BBL +5%Luminosity · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%55%
BBL · 10 mapsnearly even +2%Luminosity · 7 maps
AncientBBL ban
62%64%
BBL · 9 mapsnearly even -2%Luminosity · 7 maps
Dust2BBL ban
50%31%
BBL · 0 mapsedge BBL +19%Luminosity · 9 maps
AnubisLuminosity ban
43%50%
BBL · 3 mapsedge Luminosity +7%Luminosity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBBL remove Dust2
2. BanLuminosity remove Cache
3. PickBBL take Nuke
4. PickLuminosity take Mirage
5. BanLuminosity remove Anubis
6. BanBBL remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (57% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
BBL 58%Luminosity 42%
The model gave 58% on BBL — the map was taken by BBL.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
BBL 13%Luminosity 87%
The model gave 87% on Luminosity — the map was taken by BBL.
Model check result
Model favoriteLuminosity · 70%
Series resultBBL 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2