Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BC.Game#60 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageSINQU ban
50%50%
BC.Game · 4 mapsnearly even +0%SINQU · 0 maps
CacheBC.Game pick
60%50%
BC.Game · 1 mapedge BC.Game +10%SINQU · 2 maps
Dust2SINQU pick
29%50%
BC.Game · 3 mapsedge SINQU +21%SINQU · 0 maps
AnubisBC.Game ban
40%50%
BC.Game · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%SINQU · 0 maps
NukeBC.Game ban
50%60%
BC.Game · 0 mapsedge SINQU +10%SINQU · 1 map
OverpassSINQU ban
40%50%
BC.Game · 1 mapedge SINQU +10%SINQU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBC.Game remove Nuke
2. BanSINQU remove Mirage
3. PickBC.Game take Cache
4. PickSINQU take Dust2
5. BanSINQU remove Overpass
6. BanBC.Game remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:2
BC.Game 37%SINQU 63%
The model gave 63% on SINQU — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
BC.Game 63%SINQU 37%
The model gave 63% on BC.Game — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINQU · 54%
Series resultBC.Game 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2