Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
BC.Game#60 in the world · win 13:4series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 13:4
Trainwrecks#167 in the world · loss 4:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTrainwrecks ban
43%40%
BC.Game · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Trainwrecks · 1 map
Dust2BC.Game ban
29%50%
BC.Game · 3 mapsedge Trainwrecks +21%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%50%
BC.Game · 1 mapedge Trainwrecks +10%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
CacheTrainwrecks ban
60%50%
BC.Game · 1 mapedge BC.Game +10%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
NukeBC.Game ban
50%60%
BC.Game · 0 mapsedge Trainwrecks +10%Trainwrecks · 1 map
OverpassBC.Game ban
40%50%
BC.Game · 1 mapedge Trainwrecks +10%Trainwrecks · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBC.Game remove Nuke
2. BanTrainwrecks remove Cache
3. BanBC.Game remove Dust2
4. BanTrainwrecks remove Mirage
5. BanBC.Game remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
BC.Game 53%Trainwrecks 47%
The model gave 53% on BC.Game — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Model check result
Model favoriteBC.Game · 56%
Series resultBC.Game 13:4
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1