NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Honvéd#138 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bebop pick
58%54%
Bebop · 15 mapsnearly even +4%Honvéd · 35 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
31%50%
Bebop · 12 mapsedge Honvéd +19%Honvéd · 26 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
44%40%
Bebop · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Honvéd · 11 maps
NukeBebop ban
47%56%
Bebop · 11 mapsedge Honvéd +9%Honvéd · 5 maps
AncientBebop ban
50%50%
Bebop · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Honvéd · 14 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%71%
Bebop · 4 mapsedge Honvéd +21%Honvéd · 10 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
38%31%
Bebop · 4 mapsedge Bebop +7%Honvéd · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBebop remove Ancient
2. BanHonvéd remove Cache
3. PickBebop take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. BanBebop remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Bebop 34%Honvéd 66%
The model gave 66% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
Bebop 54%Honvéd 46%
The model gave 54% on Bebop — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 58%
Series resultHonvéd 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2