European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misa#136 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bebop pick
55%47%
Bebop · 16 mapsedge Bebop +8%Misa · 28 maps
MirageMisa ban
25%45%
Bebop · 12 mapsedge Misa +20%Misa · 18 maps
AnubisBebop ban
30%50%
Bebop · 6 mapsedge Misa +20%Misa · 22 maps
CacheBebop ban
44%44%
Bebop · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Misa · 21 map
NukeMisa ban
50%53%
Bebop · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Misa · 15 maps
InfernoMisa pick
33%57%
Bebop · 5 mapsedge Misa +24%Misa · 10 maps
Defaultpossible decider
44%33%
Bebop · 5 mapsedge Bebop +11%Misa · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBebop remove Anubis
2. BanMisa remove Nuke
3. PickBebop take Dust2
4. PickMisa take Inferno
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanBebop remove Cache
DeciderDefault (44% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Bebop 25%Misa 75%
The model gave 75% on Misa — the map was taken by Bebop.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Bebop 50%Misa 50%
The model gave 50% on Bebop — the map was taken by Bebop.
Model check result
Model favoriteBebop · 56%
Series resultBebop 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2