Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Oramond#119 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBebop pick
64%56%
Bebop · 7 mapsedge Bebop +8%Oramond · 5 maps
Dust2Oramond ban
78%40%
Bebop · 5 mapsedge Bebop +38%Oramond · 6 maps
AnubisOramond pick
50%50%
Bebop · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Oramond · 6 maps
DefaultBebop ban
33%60%
Bebop · 5 mapsedge Oramond +27%Oramond · 1 map
AncientBebop ban
29%60%
Bebop · 3 mapsedge Oramond +31%Oramond · 1 map
InfernoOramond ban
57%60%
Bebop · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Oramond · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
33%33%
Bebop · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Oramond · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBebop remove Ancient
2. BanOramond remove Inferno
3. PickBebop take Mirage
4. PickOramond take Anubis
5. BanOramond remove Dust2
6. BanBebop remove Default
DeciderNuke (33% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Bebop 55%Oramond 45%
The model gave 55% on Bebop — the map was taken by Oramond.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Bebop 53%Oramond 47%
The model gave 53% on Bebop — the map was taken by Oramond.
Model check result
Model favoriteOramond · 53%
Series resultOramond 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2