ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
benched gods#196 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MAYBE#176 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMAYBE pick
32%43%
benched gods · 21 mapedge MAYBE +11%MAYBE · 19 maps
Ancientbenched gods ban
38%44%
benched gods · 17 mapsedge MAYBE +6%MAYBE · 12 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
60%33%
benched gods · 21 mapedge benched gods +27%MAYBE · 8 maps
AnubisMAYBE ban
48%50%
benched gods · 17 mapsnearly even -2%MAYBE · 4 maps
Dust2benched gods ban
29%36%
benched gods · 10 mapsedge MAYBE +7%MAYBE · 10 maps
Defaultpossible decider
88%43%
benched gods · 13 mapsedge benched gods +45%MAYBE · 3 maps
InfernoMAYBE ban
44%50%
benched gods · 5 mapsedge MAYBE +6%MAYBE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbenched gods remove Dust2
2. BanMAYBE remove Inferno
3. Pickbenched gods take Cache
4. PickMAYBE take Mirage
5. BanMAYBE remove Anubis
6. Banbenched gods remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (88% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed7:13
benched gods 77%MAYBE 23%
The model gave 77% on benched gods — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
benched gods 41%MAYBE 59%
The model gave 59% on MAYBE — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Model check result
Model favoritebenched gods · 55%
Series resultMAYBE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2