Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
benched gods#162 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
45%50%
benched gods · 7 mapsedge Phantom Academy +5%Phantom Academy · 4 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
43%67%
benched gods · 3 mapsedge Phantom Academy +24%Phantom Academy · 8 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
64%50%
benched gods · 7 mapsedge benched gods +14%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
AnubisPhantom Academy pick
30%60%
benched gods · 6 mapsedge Phantom Academy +30%Phantom Academy · 1 map
Dust2benched gods ban
50%50%
benched gods · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
DefaultPhantom Academy ban
67%33%
benched gods · 2 mapsedge benched gods +34%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
57%40%
benched gods · 3 mapsedge benched gods +17%Phantom Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
3. Pickbenched gods take Cache
4. PickPhantom Academy take Anubis
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Default
6. Banbenched gods remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:16
benched gods 25%Phantom Academy 75%
The model gave 75% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
benched gods 66%Phantom Academy 34%
The model gave 66% on benched gods — the map was taken by benched gods.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
benched gods 45%Phantom Academy 55%
The model gave 55% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by benched gods.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom Academy · 51%
Series resultbenched gods 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3