Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aimhaus#381 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BERG ban
50%43%
BERG · 0 mapsedge BERG +7%Aimhaus · 3 maps
AnubisAimhaus pick
33%50%
BERG · 2 mapsedge Aimhaus +17%Aimhaus · 0 maps
InfernoBERG pick
60%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +10%Aimhaus · 0 maps
NukeAimhaus ban
60%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +10%Aimhaus · 0 maps
OverpassAimhaus ban
40%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge Aimhaus +10%Aimhaus · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Dust2
2. BanAimhaus remove Nuke
3. PickBERG take Inferno
4. PickAimhaus take Anubis
5. BanAimhaus remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
BERG 47%Aimhaus 53%
The model gave 53% on Aimhaus — the map was taken by BERG.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
BERG 63%Aimhaus 37%
The model gave 63% on BERG — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBERG · 50%
Series resultBERG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2