HyperX Retake Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBERG pick
50%40%
BERG · 12 mapsedge BERG +10%Famalicão · 1 map
NukeFamalicão ban
31%50%
BERG · 12 mapsedge Famalicão +19%Famalicão · 0 maps
MirageBERG ban
38%60%
BERG · 9 mapsedge Famalicão +22%Famalicão · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
50%40%
BERG · 6 mapsedge BERG +10%Famalicão · 1 map
AnubisFamalicão ban
38%50%
BERG · 4 mapsedge Famalicão +12%Famalicão · 0 maps
CacheFamalicão pick
60%60%
BERG · 1 mapnearly even +0%Famalicão · 1 map
Dust2BERG ban
40%60%
BERG · 1 mapedge Famalicão +20%Famalicão · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Dust2
2. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. PickFamalicão take Cache
5. BanFamalicão remove Anubis
6. BanBERG remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
BERG 63%Famalicão 37%
The model gave 63% on BERG — the map was taken by BERG.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
BERG 28%Famalicão 72%
The model gave 72% on Famalicão — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBERG · 70%
Series resultBERG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2