ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#210 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
mellren#118 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBERG pick
45%56%
BERG · 7 mapsedge mellren +11%mellren · 5 maps
Miragemellren pick
50%80%
BERG · 6 mapsedge mellren +30%mellren · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%56%
BERG · 3 mapsnearly even +1%mellren · 5 maps
Nukemellren ban
33%50%
BERG · 8 mapsedge mellren +17%mellren · 0 maps
AnubisBERG ban
38%71%
BERG · 4 mapsedge mellren +33%mellren · 3 maps
Dust2BERG ban
50%50%
BERG · 0 mapsnearly even +0%mellren · 6 maps
Defaultmellren ban
60%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +10%mellren · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Dust2
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Default
6. BanBERG remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (57% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
BERG 18%mellren 82%
The model gave 82% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
BERG 43%mellren 57%
The model gave 57% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 65%
Series resultmellren 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2