ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · win 2:1series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
mellren#94 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
25%66%
BERG · 8 mapsedge mellren +41%mellren · 25 maps
AncientBERG pick
50%70%
BERG · 14 mapsedge mellren +20%mellren · 16 maps
Nukemellren ban
19%19%
BERG · 12 mapsnearly even +0%mellren · 12 maps
InfernoBERG ban
36%58%
BERG · 7 mapsedge mellren +22%mellren · 15 maps
Dust2mellren ban
43%62%
BERG · 3 mapsedge mellren +19%mellren · 9 maps
AnubisBERG ban
40%73%
BERG · 1 mapedge mellren +33%mellren · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%50%
BERG · 3 mapsedge mellren +7%mellren · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Anubis
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Dust2
6. BanBERG remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
BERG 33%mellren 67%
The model gave 67% on mellren — the map was taken by BERG.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
BERG 13%mellren 87%
The model gave 87% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
BERG 32%mellren 68%
The model gave 68% on mellren — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 79%
Series resultBERG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3