Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SINQU REHTIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBERG pick
57%43%
BERG · 3 mapsedge BERG +14%SINQU REHTI · 3 maps
AncientBERG ban
40%40%
BERG · 1 mapnearly even +0%SINQU REHTI · 1 map
AnubisSINQU REHTI ban
33%50%
BERG · 2 mapsedge SINQU REHTI +17%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
InfernoSINQU REHTI ban
60%40%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +20%SINQU REHTI · 1 map
OverpassSINQU REHTI pick
40%60%
BERG · 1 mapedge SINQU REHTI +20%SINQU REHTI · 1 map
Dust2BERG ban
50%60%
BERG · 0 mapsedge SINQU REHTI +10%SINQU REHTI · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
60%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +10%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Dust2
2. BanSINQU REHTI remove Anubis
3. PickBERG take Nuke
4. PickSINQU REHTI take Overpass
5. BanSINQU REHTI remove Inferno
6. BanBERG remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
BERG 57%SINQU REHTI 43%
The model gave 57% on BERG — the map was taken by BERG.
Anubisprediction missed13:5
BERG 36%SINQU REHTI 64%
The model gave 64% on SINQU REHTI — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBERG · 59%
Series resultBERG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2