RES Showdown 4 South America: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fluxo#56 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BESTIA pick
63%50%
BESTIA · 4 mapsedge BESTIA +13%Fluxo · 8 maps
NukeFluxo pick
43%56%
BESTIA · 3 mapsedge Fluxo +13%Fluxo · 5 maps
InfernoBESTIA ban
50%38%
BESTIA · 2 mapsedge BESTIA +12%Fluxo · 4 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
50%44%
BESTIA · 0 mapsedge BESTIA +6%Fluxo · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%71%
BESTIA · 2 mapsnearly even -4%Fluxo · 3 maps
AncientFluxo ban
60%29%
BESTIA · 1 mapedge BESTIA +31%Fluxo · 3 maps
OverpassFluxo ban
40%50%
BESTIA · 1 mapedge Fluxo +10%Fluxo · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
2. BanFluxo remove Ancient
3. PickBESTIA take Dust2
4. PickFluxo take Nuke
5. BanFluxo remove Overpass
6. BanBESTIA remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (67% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
BESTIA 35%Fluxo 65%
The model gave 65% on Fluxo — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Dust2prediction correct19:17
BESTIA 65%Fluxo 35%
The model gave 65% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBESTIA · 68%
Series resultBESTIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2