WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeButterfly pick
53%59%
BET-M · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +6%Butterfly · 13 maps
Dust2Butterfly ban
41%60%
BET-M · 13 mapsedge Butterfly +19%Butterfly · 11 maps
AncientBET-M ban
14%63%
BET-M · 10 mapsedge Butterfly +49%Butterfly · 12 maps
InfernoBET-M pick
56%21%
BET-M · 12 mapsedge BET-M +35%Butterfly · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
54%69%
BET-M · 9 mapsedge Butterfly +15%Butterfly · 9 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
60%40%
BET-M · 6 mapsedge BET-M +20%Butterfly · 1 map
DefaultBET-M ban
50%63%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +13%Butterfly · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Ancient
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. PickBET-M take Inferno
4. PickButterfly take Nuke
5. BanButterfly remove Dust2
6. BanBET-M remove Default
DeciderMirage (54% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
BET-M 84%Butterfly 16%
The model gave 84% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
BET-M 8%Butterfly 92%
The model gave 92% on Butterfly — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 61%
Series resultBET-M 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2