European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientCYBERSHOKE pick
36%61%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +25%CYBERSHOKE · 14 maps
Dust2BET-M ban
50%52%
BET-M · 4 mapsnearly even -2%CYBERSHOKE · 17 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%56%
BET-M · 6 mapsnearly even +4%CYBERSHOKE · 12 maps
NukeBET-M pick
45%38%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge BET-M +7%CYBERSHOKE · 4 maps
OverpassBET-M ban
50%46%
BET-M · 0 mapsnearly even +4%CYBERSHOKE · 9 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
33%50%
BET-M · 5 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +17%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
AnubisCYBERSHOKE ban
50%43%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge BET-M +7%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Overpass
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickBET-M take Nuke
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Ancient
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Anubis
6. BanBET-M remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
BET-M 61%CYBERSHOKE 39%
The model gave 61% on BET-M — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
BET-M 24%CYBERSHOKE 76%
The model gave 76% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBERSHOKE · 56%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2