BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
60%44%
BET-M · 1 mapedge BET-M +16%SPARTA · 5 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
29%33%
BET-M · 3 mapsnearly even -4%SPARTA · 2 maps
MirageBET-M pick
60%50%
BET-M · 1 mapedge BET-M +10%SPARTA · 4 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
50%33%
BET-M · 2 mapsedge BET-M +17%SPARTA · 2 maps
NukeBET-M ban
40%67%
BET-M · 1 mapedge SPARTA +27%SPARTA · 2 maps
OverpassBET-M ban
50%57%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%40%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge BET-M +10%SPARTA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Overpass
2. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
3. PickBET-M take Mirage
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. BanBET-M remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
BET-M 62%SPARTA 38%
The model gave 62% on BET-M — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
BET-M 27%SPARTA 73%
The model gave 73% on SPARTA — the map was taken by BET-M.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
BET-M 60%SPARTA 40%
The model gave 60% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteBET-M · 60%
Series resultBET-M 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3