NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBET-M ban
33%43%
BET-M · 8 mapsedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 10 maps
MirageVexar ban
54%38%
BET-M · 9 mapsedge BET-M +16%Vexar · 4 maps
Dust2Vexar pick
42%57%
BET-M · 8 mapsedge Vexar +15%Vexar · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
36%50%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge Vexar +14%Vexar · 4 maps
NukeVexar ban
46%50%
BET-M · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Vexar · 2 maps
DefaultBET-M pick
50%60%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 6 maps
AnubisBET-M ban
50%60%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Ancient
2. BanVexar remove Mirage
3. PickBET-M take Default
4. PickVexar take Dust2
5. BanVexar remove Nuke
6. BanBET-M remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (36% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:5
BET-M 37%Vexar 63%
The model gave 63% on Vexar — the map was taken by BET-M.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
BET-M 39%Vexar 61%
The model gave 61% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
BET-M 66%Vexar 34%
The model gave 66% on BET-M — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteBET-M · 58%
Series resultVexar 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3