IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
BETBOOM#14 in the world · win 13:9series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 13:9
Liquid#27 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
44%50%
BETBOOM · 5 mapsedge Liquid +6%Liquid · 2 maps
Dust2Liquid ban
71%29%
BETBOOM · 3 mapsedge BETBOOM +42%Liquid · 3 maps
AncientBETBOOM ban
40%50%
BETBOOM · 1 mapedge Liquid +10%Liquid · 2 maps
MirageBETBOOM ban
33%40%
BETBOOM · 2 mapsedge Liquid +7%Liquid · 1 map
AnubisLiquid ban
67%50%
BETBOOM · 2 mapsedge BETBOOM +17%Liquid · 0 maps
InfernoBETBOOM ban
50%60%
BETBOOM · 0 mapsedge Liquid +10%Liquid · 1 map
OverpassLiquid ban
40%50%
BETBOOM · 1 mapedge Liquid +10%Liquid · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBETBOOM remove Inferno
2. BanLiquid remove Overpass
3. BanBETBOOM remove Mirage
4. BanLiquid remove Dust2
5. BanBETBOOM remove Ancient
6. BanLiquid remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
BETBOOM 86%Liquid 14%
The model gave 86% on BETBOOM — the map was taken by BETBOOM.
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM · 54%
Series resultBETBOOM 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1