BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisBetclic pick
78%57%
Betclic · 5 mapsedge Betclic +21%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
40%55%
Betclic · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +15%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
AncientBetclic ban
40%67%
Betclic · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +27%Eternal Fire · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
33%50%
Betclic · 2 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%Eternal Fire · 4 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
30%50%
Betclic · 6 mapsedge Eternal Fire +20%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
29%50%
Betclic · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +21%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
OverpassEternal Fire ban
50%60%
Betclic · 2 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Eternal Fire · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Inferno
2. BanEternal Fire remove Overpass
3. PickBetclic take Anubis
4. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
5. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
6. BanBetclic remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
Betclic 23%Eternal Fire 77%
The model gave 77% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Betclic 75%Eternal Fire 25%
The model gave 75% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Betclic 33%Eternal Fire 67%
The model gave 67% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 60%
Series resultEternal Fire 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3