PGL Bucharest 2027 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Betclic#61 in the world · win 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemesis#46 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis pick
50%56%
Betclic · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +6%Nemesis · 21 map
Cachepossible decider
62%67%
Betclic · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +5%Nemesis · 11 maps
Dust2Betclic pick
71%52%
Betclic · 3 mapsedge Betclic +19%Nemesis · 17 maps
NukeBetclic ban
54%67%
Betclic · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +13%Nemesis · 11 maps
MirageNemesis ban
45%43%
Betclic · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Nemesis · 10 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
50%72%
Betclic · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +22%Nemesis · 14 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
38%50%
Betclic · 12 mapsedge Nemesis +12%Nemesis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBetclic remove Inferno
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickBetclic take Dust2
4. PickNemesis take Ancient
5. BanNemesis remove Mirage
6. BanBetclic remove Nuke
DeciderCache (62% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Betclic 56%Nemesis 44%
The model gave 56% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Betclic 41%Nemesis 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 60%
Series resultBetclic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2