ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBGNS Orange ban
40%33%
BGNS Orange · 1 mapedge BGNS Orange +7%LFO 8 · 2 maps
InfernoLFO 8 ban
60%40%
BGNS Orange · 1 mapedge BGNS Orange +20%LFO 8 · 1 map
MirageBGNS Orange pick
40%40%
BGNS Orange · 1 mapnearly even +0%LFO 8 · 1 map
AncientLFO 8 pick
50%40%
BGNS Orange · 0 mapsedge BGNS Orange +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
CacheBGNS Orange ban
50%60%
BGNS Orange · 0 mapsedge LFO 8 +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
Dust2LFO 8 ban
50%40%
BGNS Orange · 0 mapsedge BGNS Orange +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBGNS Orange remove Cache
2. BanLFO 8 remove Dust2
3. PickBGNS Orange take Mirage
4. PickLFO 8 take Ancient
5. BanLFO 8 remove Inferno
6. BanBGNS Orange remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
BGNS Orange 72%LFO 8 28%
The model gave 72% on BGNS Orange — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
BGNS Orange 57%LFO 8 43%
The model gave 57% on BGNS Orange — the map was taken by BGNS Orange.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
BGNS Orange 57%LFO 8 43%
The model gave 57% on BGNS Orange — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 8 · 53%
Series resultLFO 8 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3