Esports World Cup 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
BIG#27 in the world · win 13:9series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 13:9
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBIG ban
50%62%
BIG · 4 mapsedge Aurora +12%Aurora · 9 maps
MirageBIG ban
42%63%
BIG · 8 mapsedge Aurora +21%Aurora · 4 maps
InfernoAurora ban
62%60%
BIG · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Aurora · 1 map
Dust2Aurora ban
57%40%
BIG · 3 mapsedge BIG +17%Aurora · 6 maps
AncientAurora ban
67%50%
BIG · 8 mapsedge BIG +17%Aurora · 0 maps
AnubisBIG ban
60%64%
BIG · 1 mapnearly even -4%Aurora · 7 maps
Overpasspossible decider
43%67%
BIG · 3 mapsedge Aurora +24%Aurora · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Nuke
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. BanBIG remove Anubis
4. BanAurora remove Dust2
5. BanBIG remove Mirage
6. BanAurora remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (43% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
BIG 50%Aurora 50%
The model gave 50% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 67%
Series resultBIG 13:9
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1