IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG#27 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8#15 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
BIG · 6 mapsnearly even +0%B8 · 8 maps
AncientB8 pick
43%64%
BIG · 3 mapsedge B8 +21%B8 · 7 maps
NukeBIG ban
43%50%
BIG · 3 mapsedge B8 +7%B8 · 4 maps
OverpassBIG ban
43%57%
BIG · 3 mapsedge B8 +14%B8 · 3 maps
InfernoB8 ban
57%67%
BIG · 3 mapsedge B8 +10%B8 · 2 maps
Dust2BIG pick
60%43%
BIG · 1 mapedge BIG +17%B8 · 3 maps
AnubisB8 ban
40%50%
BIG · 1 mapedge B8 +10%B8 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Nuke
2. BanB8 remove Anubis
3. PickBIG take Dust2
4. PickB8 take Ancient
5. BanB8 remove Inferno
6. BanBIG remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
BIG 28%B8 72%
The model gave 72% on B8 — the map was taken by BIG.
Overpassprediction correct6:13
BIG 39%B8 61%
The model gave 61% on B8 — the map was taken by B8.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
BIG 67%B8 33%
The model gave 67% on BIG — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 65%
Series resultB8 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3