IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
BIG#27 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 10:13
Liquid#27 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLiquid ban
50%50%
BIG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Liquid · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%40%
BIG · 3 mapsedge BIG +17%Liquid · 1 map
Dust2Liquid ban
50%29%
BIG · 0 mapsedge BIG +21%Liquid · 3 maps
AnubisBIG ban
40%50%
BIG · 1 mapedge Liquid +10%Liquid · 0 maps
InfernoBIG ban
50%60%
BIG · 0 mapsedge Liquid +10%Liquid · 1 map
NukeBIG ban
50%40%
BIG · 0 mapsedge BIG +10%Liquid · 1 map
OverpassLiquid ban
40%50%
BIG · 1 mapedge Liquid +10%Liquid · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Nuke
2. BanLiquid remove Overpass
3. BanBIG remove Anubis
4. BanLiquid remove Ancient
5. BanBIG remove Inferno
6. BanLiquid remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
BIG 60%Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on BIG — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 60%
Series resultLiquid 10:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1